Canada is about to make a fighter procurement decision vital to it's long term security and the security of the western alliance. I have concluded that the F-35 is the best option. The November 22, 2016 decision to purchase a squadron of Superhornets is a stopgap move designed to fill an immediate gap in capability while it fleshes out its broader geopolitical strategy and military plans.
The Canadian fighter decision turns on whether we are arming to operate in uncontested airspace as in Afghanistan, air superiority over lesser rivals or - more critically - top of the line rivals in highly contested airspace. The F-35 is a stealth multi-role fighters which means that it can operate in all three environments - and most critically is an effective deterent in potential highly contested airspace.
The primary problem for the western democracies is the latter - in the defence of Europe or defence of Pacific allies The F-35 is really the only option both now and into the future when the Super Hornet will no longer be effective in a high threat environment.
The F-18 Super Hornet for a number of reasons - including its size (big radar reflection) - will not be deployable in future highly contested environments. It has no development path to the future. The F-35 is designed to allow it to overcome advanced surface to air missile technlogy - through its stealth. The F-35 is also uniquely equipped with
synthetic aperture radar integration techniques, advanced processing power and advanced target recognition capabilities. The F-35 has a longer term development path with associated systems.
Critics of the F-35 suggest that the failure of the sole engine on the F-35 means loss of the aircraft and in the Canadian high arctic or in our frigid northern waters pilots might be at risk. The F-35's comparatively shorter loiter capacity
means support of CDN ground forces might be reduced. Another criticism is the high operating hour cost of the F-35 vis a vis alternatives in low intensity conflicts that seem destined to wear on for decades.
While the F-35 can perform multiple roles in different environments it is optimized as a strike fighter in highly contested airspace. An airspace denial strategy with advanced missiles like the S 400 make contested airspace very complex even for the F-35.
A revolution in military affairs is occurring with respect to the application of advanced AI to aircraft and missile technologies that call into question hitherto seemingly effective strategies and platforms of the past.
Canada will need to look to other options for low intensity theatres and for coastal defences regardless of the fighter decision. The days of piloted aircraft are numbered. What cannot be determined as yet is whether it will be a "hard" or a "soft" transition.
More here on the implications of drones and robotic systems to the evolution of the space, air,land & sea environments and the F-35's role as human in the loop.
